制造商进行市场需求预测时---零售商是否有特殊的促销计....pptVIP

問題 製造商進行市場需求預測時---零售商是否有特殊的促銷計畫?... 零售商進行市場需求預測時---製造商是否有特殊的新產品開發計畫?... 製造商接到比平常更大量的訂單---為一個月前的市場需求變動！！… 一個瓶子五萬元，全省有20個銷售點…庫存成本 vs. 缺貨風險 5.1 Introduction Value of using any type of information technology Potential availability of more and more information throughout the supply chain Implications this availability on effective design and management of the integrated supply chain “In modern supply chains, information replaces inventory” Information Types Inventory levels Orders Production Delivery status Value of Information Helps reduce variability in the supply chain. Helps suppliers make better forecasts, accounting for promotions and market changes. Enables the coordination of manufacturing and distribution systems and strategies. Enables retailers to better serve their customers by offering tools for locating desired items. Enables retailers to react and adapt to supply problems more rapidly. Enables lead time reductions. 5.2 Bullwhip Effect While customer demand for specific products does not vary much Inventory and back-order levels fluctuate considerably across their supply chain The increase in variability as we travel up in the supply chain is referred to as the bullwhip effect. 4-Stage Supply Chain Increasing Variability of Orders Up the Supply Chain Factors that Contribute to the Variability - Demand Forecasting Periodic review policy Characterized by a single parameter, the base-stock level. Base-stock level = Average demand during lead time and review period + a multiple of the standard deviation of demand during lead time and review period (safety stock) Estimation of average demand and demand variability done using standard forecast smoothing techniques. Estimates get modified as more data becomes available Safety stock and base-stock level depends on these estimates Order quantities are changed accordingly increasing variability Factors that Contribute to the Variability – Lead Time Increase in variability magnified with increasing lead tim