Scientific Method, Models and Measurement：科学的方法，模型和测量_精品.pptVIP

Scientific Method, Models and Measurement Mr. Martin * Steps of Scientific Method The scientific method “is a series of steps that scientists use to answer questions and solve problems.” (Holt, Earth Science (2001) (hereinafter “Text”,) page 13.) Steps: Ask a Question Form a Hypothesis Test the Hypothesis Analyze the Results Draw Conclusions Communicate Results * Scientific Method Computer Lab /labs/scientific_method/sci_method_selector.swf * Scientific Models “Models are representations of objects or systems.” (Text page 19.) Types of Scientific Models Physical Mathematical Conceptual “Theory” – “a unifying explanation for a broad range of hypothesis and observations that have been supported by testing.” (text, page 19) Examples – atomic theory, big bang theory * Climate Change Models Introduction – Greenhouse effect – part of the model /climatechange/science/causes.html#greenhouseeffect * /climatechange/science/causes.html#greenhouseeffect * Global Warming Basics /climatechange/basics/ * Testing the Global-Warming Model How do we know if the model is accurate? Page 20 – “If the model can accurately explain the present, then we can be more confident that the model will be able to accurately predict the future.” Page 21 – “Most climate models tell us that overall global warming due to increased greenhouse gases during the last 100 years should be between 0.5°C and 1.5°C. Now comes the test: How much global warming has actually taken place? The answer is 0.5°C. So far so good [for the model]!” * /climatechange/science/overview.html, “Models that account only for the effects of natural processes are not able to explain the warming over the past century. Models that also account for the greenhouse gases emitted by humans are able to explain this warming. Source: USGRCP (2009)” * Measurement International System of Units (SI) Advantages most scientists and almost all countries use it U.S., Burma (Myanmar) and Liberia do not officially use it. Much trade, etc. is i