十二五电动汽车科技发展战略研究与规划思路.pdfVIP

欧阳明高 Ouyang Minggao 总体思路General Mindset 产业升级 技术转型 科技跨越 Industrial Technological Scientific Upgrading Transformation Breakthrough 科技支撑 创新引领 前瞻部署 Technology innovation Future Support Deployment 混合动力 纯电驱动 燃料电池 Hybrid Power Pure Electricity Combustible Battery 产业链 价值链 技术链 Industrial Chain Value Chain Technology Chain 通过“三条技术路线”实现“三大技术突破” Achieve “3 major technological breakthroughs” through “3 major technological roadmaps” 一、重大需求与战略目标 Enormous Demands and Strategic Goals 我国正在成为全球最大的汽车生产和消费国，面临节能减排的重大挑战。 China is on its way to becoming the largest car producer and consumer country in the world, thus facing the significant challenge of cutting emissions and saving energy. 按目前发展趋势，我国2020年的汽车年产销量将超过2500万，甚至达到3000万，保有量将达到2亿 辆左右，甚至有可能超过美国，车用燃油消费量将超过3亿吨，甚至达到3.5亿吨（相应的石油消费量 达到5亿吨），总体石油对外依存度将超过70% ； By the current trend and speed of development, China’s annual auto output and consumption are likely to surmount to 25 or even 30 million cars by 2020. By then, China will possess some 200 million cars, overtaking even the U.S. Accordingly, vehicle fuel consumption is expected to surpass 300 million tons or even 350 million (equivalent to consumption of 500 million tons of petroleum), with over 70% of total oil supply dependant upon imports. 按照十一五减排20% 的要求，2010年我国乘用车平均排放应达到151.6 g/km, 相当于6.48 L/100km; 到2020年，我国要实现燃料经济性与国际水平接轨，汽车油耗水平应达到5升/百公里。 According to the 20% emission-cutting target set by the “Eleventh-Five” plan, the average emission of passenger-vehicles should reach 151.6g per km by