上财系列现代金融风险讲义.ppt

现代金融风险理论 上海财经大学 朱文革 目录 风险的定义 风险的分类 金融风险理论概述 金融风险的非经济学模型 金融经济学介绍 金融风险的经济学模型 风险管理理论概述 风险管理实务概述 现代金融风险理论第一讲 风险的定义 Historical background The term risk may be traced back to classical Greek rizikon (Greek ριζα, riza), meaning root, later used in Latin for cliff. The term is used in Homer’s Rhapsody M of Odyssey Sirens, Scylla, Charybdee and the bulls of Helios (Sun) Odysseus tried to save himself from Charybdee at the cliffs of Scylla, where his ship was destroyed by heavy seas generated by Zeus as a punishment for his crew killing before the bulls of Helios (the god of the sun), by grapping the roots of a wild fig tree. Historical background For sociologists, the term risk is a neologism which appeared with the transition from traditional to modern society. In the Middle Ages the term riscium was used in highly specific contexts, above all sea trade and its ensuing legal problems of loss and damage. In the vernacular languages of the 16th century the words rischio and riezgo were used, both terms derived from the Arabic word ???, rizk, meaning to seek prosperity. This was introduced to continental Europe, through interaction with Middle Eastern and North African Arab traders. In the English language the term risk appeared only in the 17th century, and seems to be imported from continental Europe.“ When the terminology of risk took ground, it replaced the older notion that thought in terms of good and bad fortune. Niklas Luhmann (1996) seeks to explain this transition: Perhaps, this was simply a loss of plausibility of the old rhetorics of Fortuna as an allegorical figure of religious content and of prudentia as a (noble) virtue in the emerging commercial society. 风险的教科书定义 常见的定义为： uncertainty concerning loss。 发生财务损失的不确定性，为个人日常生活或企业生命中之常态。 是对主观上不确定性的客观衡量。 某一事件，在一特定期间后，实际结果与原所预期者，产生偏差的情况。 风险的Webster定义 Exposure to the chance of injury or loss A hazard or dangerous chance Insurance: The hazard or chance of loss The degree of probability of such loss The amount that the ins