【精品】金融投资分析课件.pptVIP

* 理性经济人之所以很少，是因为大脑常常会驱使我们做出非理性行为，这也使得多数人都是有血有肉有感情的人，而他们的行为必然难以绝对的理性化。人类受到神经细胞发出的本能刺激产生的行为远比来自理性思维的分析的大脑皮层的信号更多。有趣的例子是投资组合理论的创始人马柯维茨也并非按照其理论模型配置自己的投资比例。投资决策并非解答算术题那样机械，在我们利用历史数据思考眼前的风险和未来的收益时，希望、贪婪、胆怯、惊奇、畏惧、惶恐、懊悔和快乐占据甚至主导着人们的行为。 当我们认识到了大脑思维的局限性之后，更重要和迫切的是改变我们的投资思维习惯。人们应制订现实可行的投资目标，以更大的安全性赚取更高的收益，让自己成为一名心平气和、富有耐心的投资者，更好地利用市场消息，滤除市场噪音，衡量自己的技能极限，放弃无谓的尝试，最大限度地减少犯错的次数和程度. * 股票：如爱情一样，因浪漫而生，因现实而死。 彼得·林奇说：“不进行研究的投资，就像打扑克从不看牌一样，必然失败” * * * * 持有期收益 * 持有期收益率 * 年化持有期收益 * * 长期AM比GM高 * This table is in the book on page 11. It is also provided in the Investment Templates spreadsheet in an interactive spreadsheet form. * 单位收益的风险 * 主观因素消费偏好,客观因素投资机会,长期经济增长率 * rrfr * 公司收入流;融资方式; * 收益指必要收益率 * 平行移动,nrfr平移 Probability Distributions Risky investment with ten possible rates of return Exhibit 1.4 Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return 1.7 Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return Standard Deviation is the square root of the variance 1.8 Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return Coefficient of variation (CV) a measure of relative variability that indicates risk per unit of return Standard Deviation of Returns Expected Rate of Returns 1.9 Measuring the Risk of Historical Rates of Return variance of the series holding period yield during period I expected value of the HPY that is equal to the arithmetic mean of the series the number of observations 1.10 Determinants of Required Rates of Return Time value of money Expected rate of inflation Risk involved The Real Risk Free Rate (RRFR) Assumes no inflation. Assumes no uncertainty about future cash flows. Influenced by time preference for consumption of income and investment opportunities in the economy Adjusting For Inflation Real RFR = 1.12 Nominal Risk-Free Rate Dependent upon Conditions in the Capital Markets Expected Rate of Inflation Adjusting For Inflation Nominal RFR = (1+Real RFR) x (1+Expected Rate of Inflation) - 1 1.11 Facets of Fundamental Risk Business risk Financial risk Liquidity risk