平狄克中级微观经济学课件厦门大学王瑞芳micro3章节幻灯片.pptVIP

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平狄克中级微观经济学课件厦门大学王瑞芳micro3章节幻灯片.ppt

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* 4 * * * * * * * * * * 40 * 40 * 40 * 43 * 44 * 46 * 49 * 52 * 54 * 57 * 58 * 58 * 59 * 59 * Negative NetworkExternality: Snob Effect Quantity (thousands per month) Price ($ per unit) Demand 2 D2 $30,000 $15,000 14 Pure Price Effect Originally demand is D2, when consumers think 2000 people have bought a good. 4 6 8 D4 D6 D8 However, if consumers think 6,000 people have bought the good, demand shifts from D2 to D6 and its snob value has been reduced. * Negative NetworkExternality: Snob Effect Quantity (thousands per month) 2 4 6 8 The demand is less elastic and as a snob good its value is greatly reduced if more people own it. Sales decrease as a result. Examples: Rolex watches and long lines at the ski lift. Price ($ per unit) D2 $30,000 $15,000 14 D4 D6 D8 Demand Pure Price Effect Snob Effect Net Effect * 三、不确定条件下的选择 * 描绘风险正确计量风险必须了解：行为可能导致的所有结果，每种结果发生的概率。主观判断VS客观判断几个基本概念: 期望值: 方差标准差： * 风险的偏好预期效用：是各种结果根据发生概率进行加权的平均。风险规避VS风险中性VS风险偏好风险规避: 收入带来的边际效用递减的个体是风险规避型的；对保险的运用体现了风险规避行为; 例子:PP37-42 风险中性：图PP43; 风险偏好: 图PP44. * 一个例子 A Scenario A person can have a $20,000 job with 100% probability and receive a utility level of 16. The person could have a job with a .5 chance of earning $30,000 and a .5 chance of earning $10,000. Risk Averse * 一个例子 Expected Income = (0.5)($30,000) + (0.5)($10,000) = $20,000 Risk Averse * 一个例子 Expected income from both jobs is the same -- risk averse may choose current job Risk Averse * 一个例子 The expected utility from the new job is found: E(u) = (1/2)u ($10,000) + (1/2)u ($30,000) E(u) = (0.5)(10) + (0.5)(18) = 14 E(u) of Job 1 is 16 which is greater than the E(u) of Job 2 which is 14. Risk Averse * 一个例子 This individual would keep their present job since it provides them with more utility than the risky job. They are said to be risk averse. Risk Averse * Income ($1,000) Utility The consumer is risk averse because she would prefer a certain income of $20,000 to a gamble with a .5 probability of $10