外国人眼中的房产泡沫.docVIP

Mania on the MainlandThink the U.S. real estate bubble was bad? Chinas could be worse By Dexter Roberts Beijing - Li Nan has real estate fever. A 27-year-old steel trader at China Minmetals, a state-owned commodities company, Li lives with his parents in a cramped 700-sq.-ft. apartment in west Beijing. Li originally planned to buy his own place when he got married, but after watching Beijing real estate prices soar, he has been spending all his free time searching for an apartment. If he finds the right placepreferably a two-bedroom in the historic Dongcheng quarter, near the city centerhe hopes to buy immediately. Act now, he figures, or live with Mom and Dad forever. In the last 12 months such apartments have doubled or tripled in price, to about $400 per square foot. This year theyll be even higher, says Li. Millions of Chinese are pursuing property with a zeal once typical of house-happy Americans. Some Chinese are plunking down wads of cash for homes: Others are taking out mortgages at record levels. Developers are snapping up land for luxury high-rises and villas, and the banks are eagerly funding them. Some local officials are even building towns from scratch in the desert, certain that demand wont flag. And if families can swing it, they buy two apartmentsone to live in, one to flip when prices jump further. And jump they have. In Shanghai, prices for high-end real estate were up 54% through September, to $500 per square foot. In November alone, housing prices in 70 major cities rose 5.7%, while housing starts nationwide rose a staggering 194%. The real estate rush is fueling fears of a bubble that could burst later in 2010, devastating homeowners, banks, developers, stock markets, and local governments. Once the bubble pops, our economic growth will stop, warns Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Finance Research Center. On Dec. 27, China Premier Wen Jiabao told news agency Xinhua that property prices have risen too