巴黎银行-墨西哥-宏观经济-北美自由贸易协定启示录.pdfVIP

Mexico: NAFTA-pocalypse (not) now Author:  The issues that have made less progress so far in the NAFTA talks are the thorniest. Marcelo Carvalho  Our baseline scenario remains that NAFTA will survive, but a deal is likely to take time. Head of Emerging Market Research, Latam  We explore trade dynamics of a possible post-NAFTA world, from Mexico’s viewpoint. Luiz Eduardo Peixoto Latam Economic Research Recent developments in the NAFTA renegotiation process suggests that all three countries – Gabriel Gersztein the US, Canada and Mexico – have as their baseline scenario the continuation of the deal, Head of FX IR Latam Strategy rather than its undoing. Despite the lack of actual progress, the mood now seems much better Commodity Quant Strategy than in late 2017 – good enough for the US Chamber of Commerce to call it “a sea change”. Yet, overall, this is far from being a “honeymoon”. Banco BNP Paribas Brasil SA We flag that the main sticking points in the negotiations are still mostly nowhere near an agreement (see Chart 1). These include Chapters 11 and 19, which cover provisions for investors and trade dispute settlements, respectively. Besides, labour issues haven’t yet been Sticking issues remain the dealt in depth – and remain close to the hearts of not only Canada’s more protective lawmakers ones with least headway but also to some in Trump’s core constituency (see Mexico: A guide to NAFTA talks). Ch