DesignFloodforReservoirOperation论水库运用设计洪水.PDFVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2015, 4, 9-22 Published Online February 2015 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2015.41002 Design Flood for Reservoir Operation Shanxu Wang Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan Hubei Email: wangsxabc@ th th th Received: Feb. 5 , 2015; accepted: Feb. 12 , 2015; published: Feb. 16 , 2015 Copyright © 2015 by author and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract To calculate the design flood for reservoir operation, we first need to analyze the regularity of annual runoff process’s stochastic probability of the reservoir, and take the characteristics and the requirements of reservoir operation decision into account. A theoretical framework for develop- ment of design flood forecast probability model has been provided in this paper and validated with the Three Gorges Reservoir. The results indicate that the dynamic design flood forecast of the Three Gorges Reservoir based on this probability model is reasonable and reliable. Keywords Design Flood for Reservoir Operation, Annual Unsteady Stochastic Process of Runoff, Dynamic Design Flood 论水库运用设计洪水 王善序 长江水利委员会水文局，湖北 武汉 Email: wangsxabc@ 收稿日期：2015年2月5 日；录用日期：2015年2月12 日；发布日期：2015年2月16 日 摘 要 计算水库运用设计洪水必须首先分析水库运用面临径流年内随机过程概率规律，并考虑水库调度决策特 作者简介：王善序(1938-) ，男，浙江宁波人，教授级高级工程师，主要从事水文频率分析，概率水文预报等研究。 9 论水库运用设计洪水 点、要求。本文为水库运用设计洪水预报概率模型提供了理论框架。并以三峡水库为例予以验证。结果 表明，概率模型给出的三峡水库动态设计洪水预报是合理的，可靠的。 关键词 水库运用设计洪水，径流年内不平穏随机过程，动态设计洪水 1. 引言 我国已建成数百座大型水库。但是，由于