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Japan’sBankingSystemFromtheBubbleandCrisistoReconstruction
JAPAN’S BANKING SYSTEM:FROM THE BUBBLE AND CRISIS TO RECONSTRUCTION Masahiro Kawai Institute of Social Science University of Tokyo Japan Center for Global Partnership Conference “Macro/Financial Issues and International Economic Relations: Policy Options for Japan and the United States” Tokyo, May 13, 2004 PRESENTATION I. INTRODUCTION II. MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND THE BANKING SECTOR CAUSES OF THE BANKING SECTOR CRISIS AND DIFFICULTIES IMPACT OF BANKING SECTOR DISTRESS POLICY FRAMEWORKS FOR BANK RESTRUCTURING AND ITS PROGRESS CONCLUDING REMARKS I. INTRODUCTION What are the factors behind the recent banking sector difficulty, particularly the 1997-98 systemic crisis, in Japan? Why did the government fail to address the problem early, quickly and decisively? Since the crisis, has the FSA formulated and implemented a comprehensive policy to resolve banking sector problems? Has there been sufficient progress on financial sector and corporate sector restructuring? Is the worst over in the Japanese banking system? Is the banking sector solvent? What are risks? What should be done to transform the Japanese banking system into a competitive market-based system? II. MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND THE BANKIG SECTOR 1. Macroeconomic Performance and Policy Output stagnation (Figure 1) : The average annual growth rate of real GDP was 1.1 percent during the last decade, 1992-2002. Near-zero growth (0.1%) in 1998-2002. In addition, nominal GDP has been more stagnant (-1.2% in 1998-02). Price deflation (Figure 2) : The average annual inflation rates during 1992-2002 were low or negative at 0.2% for CPI and -0.1% for GDP price deflators. The GDP deflator fell in 1995-2002 (except 1997) at 1.0% per year and CPI fell in 1999-2002 at 0.7% per year. High unemployment rate, reaching a peak of 5.5%. Keynesian fiscal spending in 1992-2002, rising from the average size of 32% of GDP in 1991 to 39% in the early 2000s, with a declining fiscal revenue (from 34% of GDP in 1991 to
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