美国共和党的新路在何方.docxVIP

美国共和党的新路在何方？Republicans offer four main explanations of their defeat in the 2012 presidential election.??????? 美国共和党人为他们在2012年总统大选中的失败提供了四种主要解释。?????? Theory 1: really, it was not very much of a defeat at all. If it had not been for hurricane Sandy, who knows what might have happened? ?????? 解释一：实际上，它不完全是失败。要不是飓风桑迪，谁知道是什么情况呢？?????? (The problem with that theory: despite a weak economy, Barack Obama was not only re-elected but led his party to gains in Congress. Mr Obama carried every swing state he targeted. Outside the Republican stronghold of the south, Mr Obama’s margin of victory was 55-45.)?????? 这种解释的问题是：尽管经济低迷，但巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)不仅成功连任，而且还带领民主党在国会取得胜利。奥巴马拿下了所有目标摇摆州。在南方共和党地盘以外的地区，奥巴马的优势比率是55%比45%。?????? Theory 2: Mr Obama owed his victory to his superior get-out-the-vote technology. All the GOP must do is buy better software.??????? 解释二：奥巴马胜选应归功于其采用的卓越动员投票技术。共和党需要做的只是购买更好的软件。?????? (The problem: Congressional Democrats won a larger total number of votes nationwide than their Republican opponents, without benefit of that technology.)??????? 问题：民主党国会议员在全国范围内赢得了比共和党议员更多的选票，而并未仰仗那种技术。?????? Theory 3: Mitt Romney was a weak candidate – it was his fault. ?????? 解释三：米特?罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)这个候选人实力太弱——输掉大选是他的错。?????? (The problem: the other 2012 Republican candidates were even weaker. And take a longer view: in the six presidential elections since 1988, Republicans have won a majority of the vote exactly once, in 2004. In the six elections before 1988, Republican presidential candidates averaged 52.5 per cent of the vote. The party’s weakness is chronic but masked by its big wins in non-presidential years, such as 1994 and 2010, when younger, poorer and browner voters tend to stay home.)?????? 问题：2012年的其他共和党人选实力更弱。从更长期来看，自1988年以来的6次总统大选中，共和党仅在2004年以绝对多数赢得大选。在1988年以前的6次选举中，共和党总统候选人平均得票率为52.5%。共和党的弱势是长期的，但被非大选年的大胜掩盖了，比如在1994年和2010年，当时较年轻、贫穷以及深色人种的选民往往呆在家里而不去投票。?????? Theory 4: there is nothing wrong with this party that a pivot on immigration policy cannot fix.??????? 解释四