天津市商品房价格影响因素的实证——基于1999-2011年的数据.pdfVIP

第2012 年第6 期 商 业 经 济 No.6 ，2012 （总第399 期） SHANGYE JINGJI Total No.399 [文章编号] 1009- 6043（2012）06- 0032- 03 天津市商品房价格影响因素的实证研究 ———基于 1999- 2011 年的数据分析 赵清斌，纪汉霖，李 濛 （上海理工大学 管理学院， 上海 200093） [摘 要] 选取天津市房地产行业的相关统计数据，通过建立多元线性回归模型,运用SPSS 软件对影响天津市商品房 价格的主要因素进行实证分析，结果表明，对天津市商品房价格具有较大影响的因素主要是商品房本年销售面积，即住房 需求对房价的影响比较大；同时，房地产开发投资额不断增加，对房价的影响则越来越重要；而家庭收入以及房屋造价等其 它因素对商品房价格的则影响较小。这启示我们要严格落实限购等房产调控政策，大力发展廉租房、经济适用房等住房保 障制度，完善房地产供应体系，抑制不合理的过度投机需求，促进房产市场的健康发展。 [关键词] 天津市；商品房价格；影响因素；实证研究 [中图分类号] F062.9 [文献标识码] A Em pirical Research on the Influencing Factors of Com m odity House Price in Tianjin: Analysis based on the Data from 1999 to 2011 ZHAO Qingbin, JI Hanlin, LI Meng Abstract: Empirically analyzing the influencing factors of commodity house price in Tianjin with SPSS software, by means of selecting relevant statistical data of real estate industry and establishing MLR (Multiple Linear Regression), the study showed that current year saleable area is the main factor, which means the housing demand has a great impact to the price; meanwhile, the increasing investment in real estate development is a growing important factor; and other factors, like family income and the cost of building, have less effect. In or- der to promote the healthy development of the real estate market, the authorities should implement the control policies of purchasing limi- tation strictly, develop the housing security system of low- rent and affordable housing, perfect the real estate supply system, and curb the unreasonable demand of excessive speculation. Key words: Tianjin, commodity house price, influencing factors, empirical research