老年人日常出行的出发时刻选择研究老年人日常出行的出发时刻选择研究.pdfVIP

11 1 Vol11 Sup. 1 2011 6 Journal of Transportation System s Engineering and Inform ation Technology June 2011 : 10096 44 ( 2011) Sup. 1010906 * 1 2 2 张 政 , 冯旭杰 , 郭彦东 ( 1. , 100036; 2. , 100044) : 利用比例风险模型, 构建了老年人出行出发时刻选择模型, 并利用北京市第三 次全市居民出行 查数据, 对模型进行了回归分析. 回归结果表明: 老年人 个人和家庭 属性出行属性采用的交通方式等 12 个特征变量对老年人出发时刻的选择有不同程 度的影响; 12. 5% 和 24. 1% 的老年人选择在 : 00以前和 10: 00以后出行; 69. 5% 的老 年人选择 8: 00之前出行进行休闲锻炼, 以休闲健身为出行目的的老年人的出发时刻相 对较早. : 城市交通; 老年人; 出行; 出发时刻; 比例风险模型 : U491. 1 : A Research on the Departure Time Choices of the Elders Daily Travels 1 2 2 ZHANG Zheng, FENG Xujie, GUO Y andong ( 1. H uaneng Energy Comm un ication H olding CO. LTD, Beijing 100036, China; 2. MOE Key Laboratory forU rban Transportation Com plex System sTheory andTechnology, Beijing Jiaotong University, B eijing 100044, China) A bstract: A departure tmi e choicem odel is developed base on the Cox proportional hazard model. And a regress ion analysis has been carried out to estmi ate the m ode,l w ith using the data of the 3rd Resident T rip Survey in B eijing. The results of the regression analysis show that the 12 characteristic variab les, such as the personal, fam ily, trip attribu tes and the choice of traffic m ode, effect the departure tmi e choice of the elders daily trips at d ifferen t degrees; 12. 5% and 24. 1% of the elders departure tmi e are respectively before : 00 am and after 10: 00 am; 69. 5% of the elders leave for leis