Unit 7 The Art of Smart Guessing翻译.doc

Unit 7 The Art of Smart Guessing Bryan W. Mattimore 1. Several years ago, interviewing candidates for a job, I grew tired of asking what experience do you have? So I decided on a one-question quiz to find out how resourceful a thinker the new hire might be. Here it is: 2. You are on a yacht sailing the Pacific Ocean. Your navigator announces you are over the deepest point, the Mariana Trench. Just then, a clumsy guest accidentally drops a 12-pound cannonball over the side. How long will it take for the cannonball to reach the bottom of the Ocean? 3. Before reading on, please try to solve this yourself — paying special attention to how you might solve it. 4. Did you make a completely wild guess because there wasnt enough information? Did you get too bogged down in the details trying to come up with the exactly right answer? Or did you zero in on the two most important problems — how deep is the Mariana Trench and how fast might a cannonball fall through the water — then hazard a guesstimate? 5. Most of my candidates simply made a wild guess, thinking that they couldnt be 100-percent right. Rarely was someone willing to risk an approximation. 6. What does this have to do with business or creativity? A great deal. In the real world, we frequently need to make decisions when the full information does not exist. From what foods we eat to how to raise our kids, creative people must think for themselves. There may not be the time or the money to make sure of all your decisions. Your best guess will often be the best you can do. 7. Suppose, for example, youve been asked to write a marketing plan for a new telephone device that will send your name, company, address and telephone number to a visual display or printer on another persons phone. In addition to conventional outlets like mass merchandisers and electronics stores, youd like to know the number of phone stores in the United States. Unfortunately, this figure is not available, either from the market-research houses