交通事故中摩托车驾驶员年龄因素的风险分析-自然灾害学报.PDFVIP

14 6 Vo.l 14, No. 6 2005 12 JOURNAL OF NATURAL D ISASTERS Dec. , 2005 : 1004-4574( 2005) 06- 0120- 05 1, 3 2 1, 3 4 李金锋 , 刘明科 , 黄崇福 , 唐于渝 ( 1. , 100 75; 2. , 661300; 3. , 100 75; 4. , 100 75) : , , , 3, 26~ 30 , : ; ; : X4 : A R isk analysis ofm otorcycle driversage factor in traffic accident rate: a case study on Hekou County, Yunnan Province 1, 3 2 1, 3 4 L I Jin-feng , LIU M ing-ke, HUANG Chong-fu , TANG Yu-yu ( 1. Institute ofD isaster and Public Security, College of Resource Sciences and Technology, Beijing NormalU niversity, Beijing 100 75, China; 2. Traffic D ivision ofH ekou County Police D epartm ent, H ekou 661300, China; 3. Key Laboratory ofEnvironm entalChange and NaturalD isaster, M inistry of Education of China, Beijing 100 75, China; 4. Co llege ofG eography and Rem ote Sensing Sciences, Beij ing Norm alUniversity, Beijing 100 75, China) Abstract: The increasing traffic accident rate in H ekou County, Yunnan Province has caught much attention of the local government. There are several factors contributing to the high accident rate such as the driver, the environ- ment and the veh icle, especially themotorcycles. One reason for that is the increased number ofmotorcycles. Lack of rigorousm anagement ofmotorcycle drivers is an another reason. The risk of causing accidents varies among driv- ers at d ifferent ages. The traffic accident information in these three years is analysed by using w ith fuzzy interval in- formation ma