矿井突出预测中临界值确定新方法.docVIP

矿井突出预测中临界值确定的新方法 摘要:突出危险性预测是矿井防突综合措施的重要环节，它包含两部分：第一步是选取突出预测敏感指标，第二步是针对选取的敏感指标确定临界值。现今所使用的各种突出预测方法中，在选择敏感指标方面已经充分考虑到突出是由各种因素综合作用的结果这个问题，选择多个指标从不同角度反映突出危险性。但是，在临界值确定方面，却依然停留在针对各个指标，确定各自的突出预测临界值，而没有进行综合考虑。本文所提出的临界值确定的新方法，就是从各个因素综合作用导致突出的角度提出的。以各个预测指标与突出危险程度的灰色关联度作为各个指标的权重系数，对各个预测指标进行综合考虑，确定临界值。 关键词：突出预测，临界值，敏感指标，灰色关联度，权重系数 The new way for determining the critical value for the outburst prediction of the mine Abstract :The outbursts prediction was the important part of the comprehensive measure for the outburst prevention to the mine. It contained two parts: the first step, chose the sensitive parameters ; the second step: determined the critical value for the sensitive parameters had been chosen. When the old methods were used, the problem about the outbursts should be attributed to the comprehensive effect of many factors had been fully considered and many parameters had been chosen to reflect the outburst hazard from different views in the first step. But when the critical value was determined, the method of determining one critical value for each outburst prediction index had not been instead of determining one comprehensive critical value for all the critical values. The new way for determining the critical value which was mentioned in this thesis, was built up on the base of the theory of the outburst was attributed to the comprehensive effect by many factors. The grey correlation degree of every prediction index and the outburst dangerous level was used as the weight coefficient. And then the critical value should be determined on the base of the comprehensive consideration for all the prediction indexes. Key words: outburst prediction, critical value, sensitive index, grey correlation, weight corfficient 矿井突出既是极其复杂的矿井瓦斯动力现象，又是煤矿井下严重的自然灾害。近百年来，世界各国在防治突出方面虽进行了大量的工作，但到目前为止，对各种地质、开采条件下突出发生的规律还没有完全掌握，也未能完全杜绝突出发生。对煤矿生产来看，防治突出的任务有两个方面：一是防止突出发生，或减小突出的频率和强度；二是避免突出造成人身伤亡事故。 突出危险性预测是防突综合措施的第一个环节。预测的目的是确定突出危险的区域和地点，以便使防突措施的执行更加有的放矢。国内外多年来开采突出煤层的实践表明，突出呈区域分布。在突出煤层开采过程中，只有很少的