基于系统动力学的重庆三峡库区生态安全情景模拟及指标-生态学报.PDFVIP

第 35 卷第 14 期 生 态 学 报 Vol.35,No.14 2015年7月 ACTA ECOLOGICA SINICA Jul.,2015 DOI:10.5846/ stxb201311122717 张梦婕,官冬杰,苏维词.基于系统动力学的重庆三峡库区生态安全情景模拟及指标阈值确定.生态学报,2015,35(14):4880鄄4890. Zhang MJ,Guan DJ,Su W C.Scenarios simulation and indices thresholds determination of ecological security in three gorges reservoir based on system dynamics.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(14):4880鄄4890. 基于系统动力学的重庆三峡库区生态安全情景模拟及 指标阈值确定 1 1,* 2,3 张梦婕 ,官冬杰 ,苏维词 1重庆交通大学,河海学院,重庆摇 400074 2 重庆师范大学,地理与旅游学院,重庆摇 400047 3 贵州科学院,山地资源研究所,贵阳摇 550001 摘要:根据重庆三峡库区生态系统的特征,建立了经济子系统、人口子系统和环境子系统的系统动力学模型,并在此基础上确定 了其模型的主要参数和反馈关系,通过历史值与仿真值的对比进行了检验。 选择了可持续发展型、资源衰竭型和自然状态型3 种情景进行模拟最终确定其生态安全的指标阈值,并将其确定的阈值应用于生态安全评价指标,得出重庆三峡库区生态安全指 标的综合得分,由此看出库区生态安全呈逐年递增的趋势,但仍然处于较为敏感的时期,需要相关部门的配合,从而最终实现库 区的可持续发展。 关键词:重庆三峡库区;系统动力学;生态安全;阈值 Scenariossimulationandindicesthresholdsdeterminationof ecological securityin three gorges reservoir based on system dynamics 1 1,* 2,3 ZHANG Mengjie ,GUAN Dongjie ,SU Weici 1School of River and Ocean Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China 2Institute of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 400047,China 3Institute of MountainResources,GuizhouAcademy of Sciences,Guiyang 550001,China Abstract:Ecological securityisaninterdisciplinaryof natural scienceandsocial science.Thereisstillnoaninternationally accepted definition of ecological security at present. In this paper,ecological security model of Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing was established using system dynamics. Firstly, according to special geographical features of Three Gorges reservoir,an improved DPSIR model,which involves all aspects of society,economy and environment,was applied to establish an evaluation index system of ecological security. AHP meth