气候变化下水文影响的不确定性问题.pdfVIP

Frontier of Environmental Science December 2012, Volume 1, Issue 1, PP. 1-6 The Uncertainties of the Effects in Hydrology under Climate Change Leihua Dong State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China Email: dongleihua@ Abstract Climate change has great effects on hydrological processes, which has been a hot topic during the researches with respect to hydrology and water resources. However, it is unavoidable that many uncertainty factors are generated during the process of assessing the effect. Based on the process for the effect assessment of climate change to hydrology, the sources of uncertainties can be divided to two categories that are the uncertainties in the process of climate prediction and the uncertainties in the process of hydrological evaluation. Afterwards, the specific uncertainties belong to two main uncertainties are illustrated in detail. At last, according to the researchs related to the uncertainty problem of climate change and hydrological modeling, the methods used in these researches are summarized in this paper. Keywords: Climate Change; Hydrological Influences; Uncertainty Analysis 气候变化下水文影响的不确定性问题* 董磊华 武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，湖北 武汉 430072 摘 要：气候变化对水文过程的影响是目前水科学研究中的热点问题，但是影响评价过程中不可避免地产生了很多不确定 性因素。根据气候变化对水文影响的评价过程，本文将不确定性来源分为两大类：气候预测中的不确定性和水文评价中的 不确定性。然后，对这两大类不确定性中的具体不确定性因素进行了分别阐述。最后，结合目前国内外的研究进展，对气 候变化下水文影响的不确定性研究方法进行了归纳总结。 关键词：气候变化；水文影响；不确定性分析 引言 根据政府间气候变化专业委员会Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)先后于 1990年、1996年、 2001 年和2007 年完成的4 次权威评估报告，气候变化带来的影响不仅仅是全球变暖，对水文水资源也带来