江苏省人口预测和结构分析.docVIP

目录 摘要： 1 关键词 1 Abstract: 1 Keywords 2 一、现代人口发展状况 3 二、提出待研究的问题 4 三、总人口与城市人口发展预测方法 4 （一）回归分析法 5 （二）灰色预测GM（1,1）法 5 四、总人口与城镇人口预测 6 （一）建立人口预测模型 6 （二）模型检验 8 （三）预测江苏省未来人口数量发展趋势 9 五、江苏省未来人口结构分析 9 （一）城乡结构分析 9 （二）年龄结构分析 12 （三）江苏人口城镇化与老龄化关系 14 六、结论和对策 14 （一）江苏省人口发展状况总结 14 （二）解决江苏省人口问题的途径 15 参考文献： 18 附录： 19 江苏省人口预测和结构分析 摘要： 当前，人口增长对于经济发展、资源环境已经构成巨大压力，而我们国家又是世界上人口最多的国家，人口问题长期制约着我国经济的发展。近年来人口发展又展现出如老龄化进程加速及农村人口城镇化等新特点，我国的人口政策要着眼于人口现状和经济发展水平，这不仅要解决当前存在的问题，也要重视未来几十年内将会出现的问题。因此，要加强对现有人口数据的分析，预测未来人口发展趋势，充分考虑人口出生率和老龄化等问题，从而制定一个有利于我国经济发展、优化人口素质的规划。本文以江苏省为例，引用《年江苏省统计年鉴》上的数据，从江苏省常住总人口出发，先预测出未来江苏省人口总量，在此基础上具体分析江苏省人口结构状况，最后总结存在的问题并提出对策。 关键词：人口结构 灰色预测 老龄化 城镇化 Abstract: Currently, population growth in economic development, resources and environment has made huge pressure, and our country has the most population in the word, and the population problem is long-term restricts the development of our national economy. In recent years population development had show new features such as aging process acceleration and the rural population urbanization, China’s population policy should depend on population actuality and economic development level, this not only to solve the existing problems, we should also pay attention to the problems which will appear in future decades. Therefore, to strengthen existing population data analysis, forecast the future population development trend, fully consider problems such as population growth and aging, then make a appropriate planning which beneficial to China’s economic development, optimization, the quality of the population. This paper take Jiangsu province as an example, quoting data from Jiangsu statistics yearbook, based on data of Jiangsu permanent population, first predict total population in the future of Jiangsu province, and then analysis the structure condition of population, finally summarizes existing problems and find some countermeasures. Keywords: The population structure Grey Prediction Aging Urbanization 一、现代人口发展状况 一个地区人口的多少不仅制