基于投入-产出模型的灾害经济影响评价方法-自然灾害学报.PDF

19 2 Vo.l 19 No. 2 2010 4 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Apr. 2010 : 1004- 4574( 2010) 02- 0113- 06 - 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 丁先军 , 杨翠红 , 祝坤福 ( 1 , 100190; 2 , 100190) : , , ARIO ( adaptive regional input- outpu t), - , - , ( CGE ) : - ; ; : F015 : A A m ethod based on inpu tou tput m odel to evaluate econom ic im pact of disasters 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 D ING X ianjun , YANG Cuihong , ZHU Kunfu ( 1A cademy ofM athem atics and System s Science, Chinese A cadem y of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 2Center for forecasting Science, ChineseA cadem y of Sciences, Beijing 10090, China) Abs tract: Th is paper analyzes econom ic mi pact of d isasters based on previous stud ies on the disaster economy, briefly introduces theAR IO model and finally, gives an inputoutputmodel wh ich considers constraints of produc tion capacity and a balance betw een supp ly and demand to evaluate the econom ic mi pact of disasters. Then th is modelw as used to evaluate the econom ic mi pact ofW enchuan earthquake. This model overcomes the constraint of the constant production structure assumption in traditional inputoutputmode,l and avoids overoptmi ization of so cial resources in the computable general equ ilibrium ( CGE) model K ey w ord s: Inputoutputmodel; disaster loss; W enchuan earthquake [ 1] , 1/6 1/4 , 200 , , 20 50- 60, 90, , , , , (CGE ) : 2009- 03- 06; : 2009- 10- 21 : ( 70 41001, 70 7110 ); ( 702210