temporal dynamics of european bat lyssavirus type 1 and survival of myotis myotis bats in natural colonies时间动态的欧洲蝙蝠lyssavirus 1型和生存的鼠耳蝠鼠耳蝠蝙蝠在自然的殖民地.pdfVIP

Temporal Dynamics of European Bat Lyssavirus Type 1 and Survival of Myotis myotis Bats in Natural Colonies 1,2 ´ 1 ´ 2 2 Blanca Amengual , Herve Bourhy , Marc Lopez-Roig , Jordi Serra-Cobo * 1 UPRE Lyssavirus Dynamics and Host Adaptation, WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Research on Rabies, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France, 2 Departament de Biologia Animal, Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain Many emerging RNA viruses of public health concern have recently been detected in bats. However, the dynamics of these viruses in natural bat colonies is presently unknown. Consequently, prediction of the spread of these viruses and the establishment of appropriate control measures are hindered by a lack of information. To this aim, we collected epidemiological, virological and ecological data during a twelve-year longitudinal study in two colonies of insectivorous bats (Myotis myotis) located in Spain and infected by the most common bat lyssavirus found in Europe, the European bat lyssavirus subtype 1 (EBLV-1). This active survey demonstrates that cyclic lyssavirus infections occurred with periodic oscillations in the number of susceptible, immune and infected bats. Persistence of immunity for more than one year was detected in some individuals. These data were further used to feed models to analyze the temporal dynamics of EBLV-1 and the survival rate of bats. According to these models, the infection is characterized by a predicted low basic reproductive rate (R0 = 1.706) and a short infectious period (D = 5.1 days). In contrast to observations in most non-flying animals infected with rabies, the survival model shows no variation in mortality af