前景理论An Analysis of Decision under Risk .pdfVIP

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk Daniel Kahneman; Amos Tversky Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2. (Mar., 1979), pp. 263-292. Stable URL: /sici?sici=0012-96822947%3A2%3C263%3APTAAOD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3 Econometrica is currently published by The Econometric Society. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTORs Terms and Conditions of Use, available at /about/terms.html. JSTORs Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at /journals/econosoc.html. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is an independent not-for-profit organization dedicated to and preserving a digital archive of scholarly journals. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact support@. Thu Apr 5 17:18:55 2007 E C O N O M E T R I C A PROSPECT THEORY: AN ANALYSIS O F DECISION UNDER RISK This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that a