an economic evaluation of preclinical testing strategies compared to the compulsory scrapie flock scheme in the control of classical scrapie经济评价的临床前测试策略强制痒病群方案相比古典痒病的控制.pdfVIP

An Economic Evaluation of Preclinical Testing Strategies Compared to the Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme in the Control of Classical Scrapie 1. 2. 3 1 4 1 Lisa Boden , Ian Handel , Neil Hawkins , Fiona Houston , Helen Fryer , Rowland Kao * 1 Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom, 2 The Roslin Institute and Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United Kingdom, 3 Oxford Outcomes, Oxford, United Kingdom, 4 Department of Zoology, The Institute for Emerging Infections, The Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, United Kingdom Abstract Cost-benefit is rarely combined with nonlinear dynamic models when evaluating control options for infectious diseases. The current strategy for scrapie in Great Britain requires that all genetically susceptible livestock in affected flocks be culled (Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme or CSFS). However, this results in the removal of many healthy sheep, and a recently developed pre-clinical test for scrapie now offers a strategy based on disease detection. We explore the flock level cost- effectiveness of scrapie control using a deterministic transmission model and industry estimates of costs associated with genotype testing, pre-clinical tests and the value of a sheep culled. Benefit was measured in terms of the reduction in the number of infected sheep sold on, compared to a baseline strategy of doing nothing, using Incremental Cost Effectiveness analysis to compare across strategies. As market data was not available for pre-clinical testing, a threshold analysis was used to set a unit-cost giving equal costs for CSFS and multiple pre-clinical