a quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics蜜蜂的殖民地人口动态的定量模型.pdfVIP

A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics 1 1,2 3 David S. Khoury , Mary R. Myerscough *, Andrew B. Barron 1 School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, 2 Centre for Mathematical Biology, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, 3 Department of Biology, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia Abstract Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. Citation: Khoury DS, Myerscough MR, Barron AB (2011) A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics. PLoS ONE 6(4): e18491. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0018491 Editor: James A. R. Marshall, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom Received September 27, 2010; Accepted March 9, 2011; Published April 18, 2011 Copyright: 2011 Khoury et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the t