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Economic Outlook OECD（经合组织经济前景）.pdf

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Economic Outlook OECD（经合组织经济前景）

Economic Outlook No. 94 19 November 2013 11h00 (Paris time) Press Conference Angel Gurría Secretary-General Pier Carlo Padoan Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist For a video link to the press conference and related material: /OECDEconomicOutlook 2 3 EDITORIAL Stronger Growth Ahead, but more Risks _______________________________ The global economy continues to expand at a moderate pace, with some acceleration of growth anticipated in 2014 and 2015. But global growth forecasts have been revised down significantly for this year and 2014, in large part due to weaker prospects in many emerging market economies (EMEs). Downside risks dominate and policy must address them. Contrary to the situation in the early phases of the recovery when stimulus in EMEs had positive spillovers on growth in advanced economies, the global environment may now act as an amplifier and a transmission mechanism for negative shocks from EMEs. In recent months, three events already have unsettled confidence and market stability, which accounts for part of the downgrading of our forecasts since the last Economic Outlook. First, the reaction to discussion in early summer regarding the tapering of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve was surprisin