兰州市大气污染物的分布特征及其对人体健康的影响..docVIP

兰州市大气污染物的分布特征及其对人体健康的影响 张莹王式功尚可政 摘要：目的 探讨兰州市大气污染物的分布特征及其对呼吸系统疾病的健康效应。方法 收集兰州市2001年1月1日至2009年12月31日的大气污染物(PM10、SO2和NO2)资料及同期的气象资料和呼吸系统疾病日入院资料，分析了PM10、SO2和NO2的分布特征及其与气象因子的相关关系。在此基础上，采用时间序列半参广义相加模型(GAM) 研究了大气污染物与呼吸系统疾病人数的暴露-反应关系。结果PM10和SO2NO2浓度基本保持不变；3种污染物浓度最高值均出现在冬季，最低值出现在夏季；PM10浓度呈双峰型SO2和NO2呈单峰型。种污染物滞后效应，0~6 d(avg06)的平均值呼吸系统疾病PM10、SO2和NO2浓度每增加10 μg/m3，对应的呼吸系统分别%、1.3%和%。 关键词：空气污染Distribution characteristics of atmospheric pollutants and their effects on human health in Lanzhou ZHANG Ying, LIU Liwei, NING Guicai, WANG Shigong, SHANG Kezheng, ZHAO Wenjing Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China Abstract：Objective To evaluate the distribution characteristics of atmospheric pollutants and their health-effects on daily respiratory disease hospital admissions. Methods Using the same period atmospheric pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) data, meteorological data and daily respiratory disease hospital admissions data, from 2001 to 2009 in Lanzhou. To analysis of the distribution of three air pollutants(PM10, SO2 and NO2), and their correlation with meteorological factors. On this basis, A time series semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between air pollution and daily respiratory disease hospital admissions. Results The concentrations of PM10 and SO2 showed a decreased trends, during the study period of 9 years, and NO2 showed weakly fluctuations and remains substantially unchanged. The highest concentrations of the three pollutants were presented in the winter and the lowest value were presented in the summer. PM10 concentration monthly distribution was bimodal distribution, SO2 and NO2 were unimodal distribution. There were significantly correlation between meteorological factors and pollutants, The results showed that there was certain lag effect of three kinds o