ID201-黄金碧：基于居民支付能力的城镇合理住房供应结构研究——以北京市为例.pdfVIP

世界华人不动产学会2011 年会 基于居民支付能力的城镇合理住房供应结构研究 ——以北京市为例 黄金碧 冯长春 北京大学城市与环境学院，北京，100871 摘要：住房供应结构不合理是造成房价偏高的重要原因。测算合理住房供应结构是建立、调 整住房保障政策和优化住房供应结构的基础。论文运用剩余收入法评估居民住房支付能力， 构建合理住房供应结构测算模型。并以北京市为例，分析2004-2009 年的合理住房供应结构 以及实际供应结构存在的问题，结合各类保障性住房申请准入标准，提出未来的合理住房供 应结构。研究表明，北京现有住房供应中，保障性住房供给严重不足，夹心层居民比例较高， 未来基于建筑面积的合理住房供应结构大约为商品房23.20%，两限房10.79%，经济适用房 7.65%，廉租房1.72%，公租房56.64%。 关键词：住房供应结构；剩余收入法；住房保障；北京 Study on the Reasonable Housing Supply Structure Based on Residents’Affordability: the Case of Beijing Huang Jinbi ，Feng Changchun College of Urban and Environmental Sciences，Peking University, Beijing ，100871 Abstract: Irrational housing supply structure is an important reason for high housing prices. To measure the reasonable housing supply structure is the basis for the establishment and adjustment of housing security policies, and also the basis for optimizing the structure of housing supply. This paper uses the residual income approach to assess the residents ’housing affordability, and to analyze the housing affordability threshold of various types of housing, and then build a model of estimating the reasonable housing supply structure. Also it takes Beijing as an example, to analyze the problems of the actual housing supply structure, based on the reasonable housing supply structure from 2004 to 2009, and then puts forward the reasonable housing supply structure in the near future combined with the access standard of application of the indemnificatory housing. This study indicates that there were a serious shortage of supply of indemnificatory housing and a higher proportion of residents in the sandwich layer. The reasonable housing supply structure based on construction area in the near