Mathematical modelling in health care MSSANZ（数学模型在卫生保健 MSSANZ）.pdf

th 18 World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009 .au/modsim09 Mathematical modelling in health care Karnon, J. 1, Mark Mackay 2 and T.M. Mills 3 1 School of Population Health and Clinical Practice, The University of Adelaide 2School of Psychology, The University of Adelaide 3 Loddon Mallee Integrated Cancer Service Email: tmills@.au Abstract: We will describe several cases studies that illustrate how we have used modelling to improve the delivery of health care. The studies cover various settings in health care, utilise a variety of mathematical modelling techniques, and include descriptions of the impact of the model on the health care system. The studies can be described briefly as follows. In the financial year 2006/2007, emergency departments (EDs) in Australian hospitals dealt with 5,287,451 presentations. Statistical models have been used to forecast the number of patients served by an ED each month, and to evaluate the impact of changes and innovations introduced to the ED. The operation of an acute care hospital medical service has been described well by a double compartment model. Modification to the basic model facilitates the incorporation of occupancy fluctuations, such as winter peaks, across the year. These models can improve strategic decision making in relation to hospital beds. At a more aggregated level, a cohort Markov model was used to identify the most cost-effective screening programme for cervical cancer. The model describes the development of precancerous lesions and progression via multiple stages to the advanced form of cervical cancer, and subsequent death. Cancer may be diagnosed at any time, via screening or clinical presentation with sy