考虑支路随机断线的概率潮流方法和应用_董雷.pdfVIP

第 38 卷 第 20 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.38 No.20 2010 年 10 月 16 日 Power System Protection and Control Oct. 16, 2010 考虑支路随机断线的概率潮流方法及应用 董 雷，程卫东，杨以涵 （华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院，北京 102206） 摘要：采用交流概率潮流方法，综合考虑负荷的随机波动、发电机的随机停运以及支路的随机故障对系统潮流的影响，并应 用于系统的静态安全分析。为提高计算效率，采用线性化的潮流方程，并利用潮流计算中的灵敏度矩阵，在网络的相应节点 上引入随机补偿功率来模拟支路的随机开断，结合半不变量和Gram-Charlier级数展开的方法来求取各节点电压和各支路潮 流的概率分布，避免了复杂的卷积运算。同时采用故障排序技术，根据预想事故严重程度的顺序对各支路进行随机开断分析， 减少了计算量。分别采用 IEEE30 节点系统和 IEEE118 节点系统进行概率潮流分析，得到系统静态安全评估的概率指标，并 与蒙特卡罗法进行比较，验证了该方法的快速性和准确性。 关键词：概率潮流；支路随机故障；半不变量；Gram-Charlier级数展开 Probabilistic load flow method with consideration of random branch outages and its application DONG Lei ，CHENG Wei-dong ，YANG Yi-han （School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University ，Beijing 102206 ，China ） Abstract ：An AC probabilistic load flow analysis considering the fluctuation of loads ，the unscheduled unit outages and random branch outages is proposed ．And then it is applied to analyze the power system’s static state security ．Linear load flow model is used and the random branch outages are simulated as the probabilistic compensation power at the relative nodes by using the sensitivity matrix ，then a method combining Cumulants with Gram-Charlier Series expansion is applied to obtain the probabilistic distribution of nodal voltages and line flows ，which avoids the complex convolution calculation ．Simultaneously，this paper adopts the technology of contingency sequencing to analyze the random outages of each branch according to the severity order of contingency ，which reduces the calculation amount ．Applying this method into probabilistic load flow analysis of the IEEE30 test system and IEEE118 test system, the probabilistic indices of static state security is obtained ．The comparison resul