中国适应气候变化自然与社会经济影响与风险评价-中国气候变化信息网.PPT

Adaptive Planning 适应性规划 Training Course on Climate Change: Physical and Socio-Economic Impact and Risk Assessments Workshop 中国适应气候变化自然与社会经济影响与风险评估研讨会培训课程 Presidential Plaza Hotel, Beijing 北京国宾酒店 March 3-5, 2010 2010年3月3-5日 ISET, UKCIP and WRI 英国社会经济转型所、英国气候影响项目、世界能源研究所 “Climate Change, a wicked problem” “气候变化，一个难缠的问题” Impacts will be both direct and local AND indirect due to changes far away 既有直接、局部的影响，又有间接、长期的影响 Occurring within and interlinked with dynamic social, economic and political processes 既存在于社会、经济与政治发展进程之中，又与之相互联系 Adaptive Planning: Not What You Might Expect意料之外的适应规划 ? ISET It is NOT possible to formally plan adaptation strategies for every climate change scenario. 并不是每个气候变化情景分析都能产生规范的适应策略规划。 But it IS possible to plan to build systems that ENABLE adaptation. 但却可以规划设立相应系统，使适应成为可能。 In other words, adaptive planning means planning to LEARN. 换句话说，适应性规划意味着有计划的学习。 规划适应 自发适应 适应的冰川效应 Adaptation: An Iterative Shared Learning Cycle适应：反复共享学习周期 Practical Tools for Adaptive Planning (1) 实用适应性规划工具（1） Climate Vulnerability Assessments 气候脆弱性评估 Stakeholder Consultations and Engagement 咨询利益相关者并与之相结合 Shared Learning Dialogues 共享学习对话 Risk Assessments 风险评估 Cost Benefit Analysis: qualitative over quantitative 成本收益分析: 从定量分析到定性分析 Merging global climate science with local climate knowledge and experience 将全球气候科学与当地气候知识与经验相融合 Practical Tools to Adaptive Planning (2) 实用适应性规划工具（2） Environmental Impact Assessments 环境影响评估 Technical Feasibility 技术可行性研究 Capacity Assessments 能力评估 Institutional Analysis 体制分析 Multi-Criteria Scenarios, Threshold and Sensitivity Analyses，including beyond coping 多标准情景分析、阈值和敏感性分析（包含超越性应对） Policy coordination and planning 政策协调与规划 Outcomes 成果 Presentation and discussions of objectives and processes 对目标与进程进行发言讨论 Building of a meta-plan 元计划的设立 Sharing understanding and experiences 共享知识与经验 Strengths and weakness of various approaches, and tools 探讨不同方法与工具的优势与劣势 Identifying next steps (post workshop actions) 确定下一步（