甘肃省“蛛网模型”马铃薯供求关系的分析-中国农学通报.pdf

中国农学通报 2012,28(17):215-220 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 甘肃省“蛛网模型”马铃薯供求关系的分析 1 1 2 2 刘 勇 ，杜 英 ，陈强强 ，郭旭明 1 2 （甘肃省科学技术情报研究所，兰州730000 ；甘肃农业大学经济管理学院，兰州730070） 摘 要：为了使马铃薯产业的供求机制及其价格变动成为甘肃省农民增收、工业发展的重要信息导向 源。运用“蛛网模型”对甘肃省1999—2008 年期间马铃薯价格的变化作深入的分析。并通过“蛛网模 型”价格信号反应，分析了甘肃省马铃薯市场“蛛网模型”变迁路径与诱导因素，从而“管中窥豹”式的观 察马铃薯市场，以便采取措施，规避市场风险。 关键词：蛛网模型；马铃薯；供求分析 中图分类号：F32 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2011-3509 TheAnalysisonSupplyandDemandofPotatoesBasedonCobwebModelinGansuProvince 1 1 2 2 Liu Yong , Du Ying , Chen Qiangqiang , Guo Xuming 1 ( InstituteofSciencesandTechnologyInformationofGansu, Lanzhou 730000; 2EconomyandManagementCollegeGansuAgriculturalUniversity, Lanzhou 730070) Abstract:Based on market price, cultivated area and harvest statistical data of potato in Gansu Province from 1999 to 2008, models among market price, cultivated area and harvest were established with the cobweb model and the change characteristic and reasons for cobweb model of potato market in Gansu Province were analyzed. At last, some effective countermeasures were put forward from different quarters including price expectation of potatoes; price subsidy for means of production; dissemination of advanced techniques; the prevention and control of natural calamities of potato etc. Keywords:cobweb model; potatoes; analysis of supply and demand 0 引言 薯产业发展规避市场风险，融入市场相对“安全带”具 马铃薯是甘肃省的三大粮食作物之一，在甘肃农 有现实意义。 业经济中占有重要地位，已成为甘肃省旱作农业区农 1 甘肃