3 基于delphi法分析颠覆性创新技术影响因素权重 - 《科技管理研究》！.docVIP

基于Delphi和DEMATEL法影响国网的颠覆性创新技术 影响因综合排序分析* 李晓龙1，鲁平2，李存斌2 （1. 河北省电力公司，石家庄，050000；2. 华北电力大学 经济与管理学院，北京 昌平 102206） 摘要：对影响国网的颠覆性创新技术等因素进行重要程度分析和综合排序是对国家电网公司来讲非常重要的实际问题。本文首先构建了对国网有影响的颠覆性创新技术指标体系，利用Delphi法对国网中出现的颠覆性创新技术进行了调查分析，得出专家的积极性、权威性和变异系数，进一步由Delphi法专家打分计算出指标权重；然后基于DEMATEL法和专家对各个指标之间的相互影响关系，对影响国网的这些因素进行分析研究，进行算例分析，得出各个指标的影响度、被影响度、中心度、原因度和综合影响度，分析各个指标影响因素的重要影响程度，为国网公司应对颠覆性创新技术提供参考。 关键词：颠覆性创新技术；Delphi法；DEMATEL法；国网公司 TM711 文献标识码：A 文章编号： Comprehensive Analysis to Affect Factors of Disruptive Innovations in the State Grid Based on Delphi and DEMATEL Law Li Xiaolong1，LU Ping2，LI Cunbin2 （1. Hebei Electric Power Corporation,Shi Jiazhuang 050000; 2. North China Electric Power University,Changping District, Beijing 102206） Abstract：It?is?an?very?important?and?actual?thing?to?State?Grid?corporation?to?make an analysis of importance and?a?comprehensive?rank?in?terms?of?the?different?influences?of?disruptive?innovation?technology.?Firstly,?this?paper?builds?an?index?system?of?disruptive?innovation?technology?that?may?have?affect?to?State?Grid?corporation?.At?the?same?time,?Delphi?method?is?used?to?make?a?survey?analysis?to?those?disruptive?innovation?technologies,?and?obtain?experts’?initiative、authoritative?and?the?variation?coefficient,?further,?calculate?the?index?weight?by?Delphi?expert?scoring?method.??Then,?based?on?DEMATEL?method?and?expert,?analysis?and?study?the?relationship?of?various?indicators?and?these?indicators?which?may?influence?State?Grid?corporation,?and?by?study?analysis,?we?can?get?influence?degree、affected?degree、centralize?degree、cause?degree?and?combined?effects?degree, by means of analyzing the importance degree of each indicator ?factors to provide?a?references?for?State?Grid?corporation?to?deal?with?disruptive?innovations. Keywords：Subversive Innovation Technology;Delphi Method;DEMATEL Method;State?Grid?Corporation of China 1 引言 目前，国家电网公司面向激烈的市场竞争，增强企业科技发展水平，对出现的颠覆性技术进行充分的了解，对国家电网公司未来的发展至关重要。目前颠覆性创新的含义并未有清晰的统一，据其描述，活动在低