现代管理学201510_xg第七章战略与计划-决策资料.ppt

* * 石头、剪刀、布游戏 田忌赛马 纳什均衡： 给定对方不变，单方改变策略没有更多的好处 剪刀 石头 布 剪刀 0，0 - 2，2 3,-3 石头 2，-2 0，0 -1，1 布 -3，3 1，- 1 0，0 * * 囚徒困境： （1）若两人都不承认，各判1年； （2）若只有一人坦白，则坦白者释放，另一人判8年； （3）若都坦白，则各5年。 囚徒2 不坦白 坦白 囚徒1 不坦白 -1，-1 -8，0 坦白 0，-8 -5，-5 * * 举例：“剪刀.石头.布” 乙 甲 剪刀 石头 布 剪刀 0，0 -2，2 3，-3 石头 2，-2 0，0 -1，1 布 -3，3 1，-1 0，0 * * 举例：“剪刀.石头.布” 设甲出剪刀和石头的概率分别为a和b，混合战略纳什均衡是使得对方无论选择什么行动，期望支付无差异： 乙出剪刀：-2b+3(1-a-b) 乙出石头：2a-(1-a-b) 乙出布：-3a+b 纳什均衡为{(1/6,1/2,1/3); (1/6,1/2,1/3)}，标准的说法是甲、乙各自分别以1/6、1/2、1/3的概率出剪刀、石头、布的两个混合战略构成了纳什均衡。 a=1/6, b=1/2 人有了知识，就会具备各种分析能力， 明辨是非的能力。 所以我们要勤恳读书，广泛阅读， 古人说“书中自有黄金屋。 ”通过阅读科技书籍，我们能丰富知识， 培养逻辑思维能力； 通过阅读文学作品，我们能提高文学鉴赏水平， 培养文学情趣； 通过阅读报刊，我们能增长见识，扩大自己的知识面。 有许多书籍还能培养我们的道德情操， 给我们巨大的精神力量， 鼓舞我们前进。 * A procedure is a series of interrelated sequential steps that a manager can use for responding to a well-structured problem. The only real challenge is to identify the problem. Once the problem is clear, so is the procedure. A rule is an explicit statement that tells a manager what he or she ought or ought not to do. Rules are simple to follow and promote consistency. A third guide for making programmed decisions is policy. In contrast to rules, policies establish parameters for the decision maker rather than specifically stating what should or should not be done. * The four organizational levels are top, middle, and first-line managers and operative employees. At which of these levels should decisions be made? Recurring or routine decisions, programmed decisions, should be made by lower levels of management: for instance, middle-level managers make coordinating decisions with short-term implications and first-line managers make routine departmental decisions to determine what needs to be done. Nonrecurring or unique decisions, nonprogrammed decisions, should be made by top management. Operative employees make job-related decisions to determine how a job should be done. Few decisions are either fully programmed or fully nonprogrammed. These are extremes, and most decisions fa