基于多因素耦合的停车生成率模型研究.pdf

构建生态人文交通 促进经济跨越发展:第十九届海峡两岸都市交通学术研讨会论文集 基于多因素耦合的停车生成率模型研究 于宾，韩皓，孙玉琴 摘 要：停车需求预测经常采用的生成率模型，因考虑因素单一的局限使其不能很好地应用于规划实践。 综合分析停车费用、交通拥挤状况、地理位置、停车设施服务水平等多影响因素对停车需求的影响及其内 在的耦合现象，结合停车费用、交通拥挤状况和停车设施服务水平对居民出行的影响程度的调查结果，将 停车周转率、停车利用率引入停车生成率模型中，并考虑未来年机动车增长系数和机动车出行变化系数对 停车需求的影响，建立基于多因素耦合的停车生成率模型;在实例中应用，并验证其使用效果。论文研究对 指导实践工作具有一定现实意义。 关键词：停车生成率模型；停车需求；耦合因子；机动车出行变化系数 Research on Multi-Factor Coupling-Based Parking Generation Rate Model YU Bin, HAN Hao, SUN Yu-qin Abstract: The Parking Generation Rate Model is often used in parking demand prediction. But it could not well be used in urban planning for it’s limitations of less considered factors. Based on comprehensively analyzing the multi-factor effects on parking fees ，traffic congestion ，geographical position and the service level of parking facilities and internal coupling phenomenon on parking demand，combined with survey results of the influence degree of the dweller on parking fees，traffic congestion and the service level of parking facilities ，it introduces the parking lot’s turnover ratio and utilization rate to the model. Then based on considering the influence on parking demand of motor vehicle growth coefficient and motor vehicle travel change coefficient of future years, establishes multi-factor coupling-based parking generation rates model，taking it into practical application and checking it. The research has a realistic significance on guiding practice work. Key words: Parking generation rates model; Parking demand; Coupling factor; Motor vehicle travel change coefficient 0 引言 随着我国机动车保有量的快速增长、机动化水平的不断提高，停车问题已成为城市发展的“瓶颈”， 其根源在于快速增长的机动车保有量和紧张的泊位供给之间的矛盾。因此，应合理的确定城市停车需求量。 停车需求预测是城市停车设施规划的前提和基础，是确定停车发展规划的依据，也是制定停车场设施 建设方案及停车场管理制度的重要基础错误！未找到引⽤源。。在停车需求预测方法中，停车生成