经济增速公道区间的熟悉(国外英文资料).docVIP

经济增速合理区间的认识 The understanding of the reasonable range of economic growth By wang yiming Since the second half of 2010, Chinas economic growth from the implementation of the package of a strong rebound gradually slowed to 9.5% ~ 9.8% growth platform, in the third quarter of 2010 increased by 9.6%, the fourth quarter growth of 9.8%, 9.7% growth in the first quarter of this year, in the second quarter growth of 9.5%. Some forward-looking indicators point to a slowdown in growth. Aspects of the change of economic growth in China, the voice is not completely consistent, some believe that Chinas economy faces a hard landing risk, then there will be a stagflation, some believe that Chinas economic growth momentum remains strong, it is important to avoid economic growth too fast. How to recognize and grasp the reasonable range of economic growth in our country at present and in the future is a problem that needs to be clarified. Judging the reasonable range of economic growth in our country, the most important thing is to see whether the rate of economic growth is roughly the same as the level of potential growth. Potential growth rate, usually refers to an economy in a specific period of time, all kinds of resources under the condition of optimized and full configuration can achieve maximum economic growth. In the short term, affected by demand factors, the actual economic growth often fluctuates up and down around the potential growth rate, but from the long run, it can realize the economic growth rate is determined by the potential growth rate. Under normal circumstances, can through the production function method and phillips curve method calculates potential growth rate of change, but a bit rough, can also be a period in the past the average growth rate as a potential growth rate, such as gross domestic product grew by an average of 9.9% a year from 1979 to 2010, can be broadly to the growth rate of around 10% as a potential growth over the past 30 years. We should ju