不同市场机制下发电投资周期性波动模拟分析.pdfVIP

第 29 卷 第 1 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.29 No.1 Jan. 5, 2009 2009 年 1 月 5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2009 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 63 0258-8013 (2009) 01-0063-05 TM 73 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 不同市场机制下发电投资周期性波动的模拟分析 刘国跃，曾鸣，肖霖，徐鸿 (华北电力大学，北京市 昌平区 102206) Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Generation Investment Fluctuation Under Different Market Mechanisms LIU Guo-yue, ZENG Ming, XIAO Lin, XU Hong (North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: A dynamic simulation model of generation model ，RPM)可以很好地引导发电投资并降低用户购电成 capacity investment was established, and the periodical 本。该模型方法在现有相关研究成果中并不多见，所得模拟 fluctuation of generation investment was simulated and 结果对于我国未来电力市场机制设计兼顾协调“有效吸引发 analyzed under several mechanisms. The simulation results 电投资”和“促进市场效率提高”这两个目标具有重要参考 show that fluctuation of generation investment can be gradually 价值。 dampened under the energy-only mechanism in perfect 关键词：发电投资；动态模拟；单一能量市场；容量费用机 environment. However, in imperfect conditions, neither the 制；可靠性定价机制 energy-only mechanism nor the capacity payment mechanism leads a sufficient and robust generation investment. Because 0 引言 the long term load forecast made by the ISO 3 years before the 在经历了 3 年的电力供应短缺之后，我国的电 delivery year is more accurate than those made by the investors, 力供应在 2006 年已经趋于平衡，并从 2007 年开始 and the downward sloping demand curve gives a c