基于自由现金流的财务预警研究终稿(郑丽丽)要点.doc

学校代码：10385 学 号：0916106043 国立华侨大学 财务管理专业学位论文 基于自由现金流的财务预警研究 院 系：工商管理学院 专 业：财务管理 届 别：2013届 学 号：0916106043 姓 名：郑丽丽 指导老师：陈思雄 摘 要 随着经济全球化的发展，企业面临的市场竞争日益激烈，很多企业爆发了财务危机而使企业陷入困境。此外，在“现金为王”的时代，传统财务指标预警模型已无法摆脱人为的操作，因而存在很多的局限。在此基础上，本文提出了基于自由现金流的财务预警研究。本文首先介绍了研究的背景、目的、意义，阐述了国内外财务预警发展状况和本文的创新点、不足之处；然后对财务危机、自由现金流进行界定以及说明自由现金流指标运用于财务危机预警模型中的优越性；接着进行实证研究，主要包括样本的选取，运用非参数显著性检验、相关性分析和主成分分析法对指标进行层层筛选，根据选出的5个主成分指标构建Logistic财务预警模型及进行回归检验；最后对本次研究得出结论和建议。 关键词：自由现金流，财务危机，主成分分析，财务预警, Logistic回归模型 ABSTRACT With the development of economic globalization, enterprises are faced with the market increasingly competitive, many enterprise financial crisis broke out and make the enterprises get into trouble. In addition, the cash is king era, the traditional financial index early-warning model has been unable to get rid of the artificial operation, so there are a lot of limitations. On this basis, this paper puts forward the financial early warning research based on free cash flow. At first, this article introduces the research background, purpose, significance, elaborated the domestic and foreign financial early warning situation and this paper innovation points and deficiencies; then the financial crisis, defining the free cash flow and free cash flow indicators used in the financial crisis early warning model of superiority; after that, carries on the empirical research, mainly including selection of samples, using the nonparametric test of significance, correlation analysis and principal component analysis to the screening index, based on 5 main component indexes chosen build financial early warning model and Logistic regression testing; finally, draw conclusions and recommendations of the study. Keywords: Free Cash Flow, Financial Crisis, Principal Component Analysis, Financial Early-warning, Logistic Regression Model 目 录 1 绪论 1 1.1 研究背景、目的和意义 1 1.1.1 研究背景 1 1.1.2 研究目的和意义 1 1.2 文献综述 2 1.2.1 国外财务危机预警理论发展状况 2 1.2.2 国内财务危机预警理论发展状况