2015数模美赛S奖论文2015数模美赛S奖论文.pdf

For office use only Team Control Number For office use only T1 ________________ 39993 F1 ________________ T2 ________________ F2 ________________ T3 ________________ Problem Chosen F3 ________________ T4 ________________ A F4 ________________ 2015 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) Summary Sheet The Optimal Strategy of Drugs Distribution and Transportation In The Case of Ebola Summary Aiming at the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa in 2014, the world medical association has announced that medicines which can stop Ebola come out. Therefore, so as to control Ebola even eliminate Ebola fully, we establish the optimal model of drugs distribution and transportation on Ebola. We begin to establish a tree structure, which describes the traffic network of incidence area. According to their medical conditions, economical conditions and the number of patients, we classify all the incidence cities into different levels. Then we analyze the influence of drugs distribution on the spread of Ebola. (1) If the rate of drugs production is large enough to satisfy the demand, then we establish a Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA). The model can predict the number of added patients and total amount of medical demand within a short term by SPSS software. (2) If the drugs production is so limited that cannot satisfy the demand of all areas, then we should consider the influence of the immigration on the spread of Ebola. In order to define the severity of Ebola ? , we introduce the endemic equilibrium P