Analyses of extreme flooding in A ustria over the period.pdf

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Analyses of extreme flooding in A ustria over the period.pdf

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Analyses of extreme flooding in A ustria over the period

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. (2011) Published online in Wiley Online Library () DOI: 10.1002/joc.2331 Analyses of extreme flooding in Austria over the period 1951–2006 Gabriele Villarini,a,b* James A. Smith,a Francesco Serinaldi,c Alexandros A. Ntelekosb,d and Ulrich Schwarzb,e a Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA b Willis Research Network, London, UK c Dipartimento GEMINI, Universita’ della Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy d Willis Analytics, London, UK e Fluvius, Vienna, Austria ABSTRACT: Analyses of extreme flooding in Austria is performed using daily discharge time series from 27 stations over the period 1951-2006. The main research questions revolve around: (1) temporal non-stationarities in the flood record, (2) upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak records, and (3) relation between magnitude and frequency of flooding and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Two datasets are derived from the daily discharge time series: annual maximum daily discharge and peaks-over-threshold (POT) data. The validity of the stationarity assumption in the annual maximum discharge record is assessed by investigating the presence of abrupt and slowly varying changes using nonparametric tests. The time series are tested for abrupt changes both in the mean and variance of the flood peak distributions by means of the Pettitt test. The presence of monotonic trends is investigated by means of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman tests. Violations of the stationarity assumption are associated with abrupt rather than gradual changes. These step changes generally involve river regulation through construction of dams or other major engineering works. It is not possible to make conclusive statements about the presence of an anthropogenic climate change signal in the flood peak record. Similar conclusions are obtained when focussing on the frequency of POT floods. The Generalised Extreme Value distribution is us