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3a Estimation flexible probabilities - Generalized method of moments.pdf

3a Estimation flexible probabilities - Generalized method of moments.pdf

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3a Estimation flexible probabilities - Generalized method of moments

The “Checklist” 2a. Estimation: Flexible Probabilities Generalized Method of Moments Generalized Method of Moments ? Topic: parametric estimation of the invariants distribution based on the Generalized Method of Moments ? We introduce the Method of Moments with Flexible Probabilities estimate ? We extend to Flexible Probabilities the Generalized Method of Moments with exact specification ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Feb-07-2017 - Last update The “Checklist” 2a. Estimation: Flexible Probabilities Generalized Method of Moments Method of Moments Canonical Method of Moments A parametric assumption on the distribution of the invariants is εt ~ fε ∈ {fθ}θ∈Θ (2a.95) ? θ ≡ (θ1, . . . , θl?)′, l? × 1 vector ? Θ ? Rl?, discrete or continuous ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Feb-07-2017 - Last update The “Checklist” 2a. Estimation: Flexible Probabilities Generalized Method of Moments Method of Moments Canonical Method of Moments The first l? cross moments of the invariants can be expressed by l? equations fε ≡ fθε , E {εi,tεj,t · · · } ≡ hi,j,...(θε) (2a.96) The Method of Moments (MM) estimate θ? MM ε of θε is the solution of f?MMε ≡ fθ?MMε , 1 t? ∑t? t=1i,tj,t · · · ≡ hi,j,...(θ? MM ε ) (2a.101) where {1, . . . , t?} is the time series of realized invariants. See also Example 2a.24 ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Feb-07-2017 - Last update The “Checklist” 2a. Estimation: Flexible Probabilities Generalized Method of Moments Method of Moments Method of Moments with Flexible Probabilities Consider Flexible Probabilities {pt}t?t=1 rather than the equal probability weights pt ≡ 1/t?. The Method of Moments with Flexible Probabilities (MMFP) estimate θ? MMFP ε of θε is f?MMFPε ≡ fθ?MMFPε , ∑t? t=1pti,tj,t · · · ≡ hi,j,...(θ? MMFP ε ) (2a.102) See also Example 2a.25 ARPM - Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management - arpm.co This update: Feb-07-2017 - Last update

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