§10 时间序列市场预测法摘要.ppt

* * * * * * * * * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * * * * * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * * * * * * * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * * * * * * * * * * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. 四、季节比重? 季节指数 季节变差 季节比重 某百货店女装部2002年至2006年分季销售额如表所示，单位万元，试测算季节指数、季节变差、季节比重。 年份 一季度 二季度 三季度 四季度 2002 354.94 370.18 312.08 352.16 2003 338.96 457.59 269.26 442.12 2004 432.97 398.50 317.83 467.42 2005 368.58 416.18 216.55 390.29 2006 354.42 415.72 186.53 356.21 example 解： 计算历年同季的合计数和平均数 计算全时期（20个季）的季平均数，即： 根据公式计算各季的季节指数，如第一季度的季节指数为： 其余类推。 或 计算季节指数 年 份 一季度 二季度 三季度 四季度 合计 全年平均 2002 354.94 370.18 312.08 352.16 1389.36 347.34 2003 338.96 457.59 269.26 442.12 1507.93 376.98 2004 432.97 398.50 317.83 467.42 1616.72 404.18 2005 368.58 416.18 216.55 390.29 1391.60 347.90 2006 354.42 415.72 186.53 356.21 1312.88 328.22 合 计 1849.87 2058.17 1302.25 2008.20 7218.49 1804.62 季平均数 369.97 411.63 260.45 401.64 1443.70 360.92 季节指数% 102.51 114.05 72.16 111.28 400.00 100.00 季节变差 9.05 50.71 -100.47 40.72 0 — example 解： 根据公式计算各季的季节变差，如第一季度的季节变差为： 其余类推。 计算季节变差 年 份 一季度 二季度 三季度 四季度 合计 全年平均 2002 354.94 370.18 312.08 352.16 1389.36 347.34 2003 338.96 457.59 269.26 442.12 1507.93 376.98 2004 432.97 398.50 317.83 467.42 1616.72 404.18 2005 368.58 416.18 216.55 390.29 1391.60 347.90 2006 354.42 415.72 186.53 356.21 1312.88 328.22 合 计 1849.87 2058.17 1302.25 2008.20 7218.49 1804.62 季平均数 369.97 411.63 260.45 401.64 1443.70 360.92 季节指数% 102.51 114.05 72.16 111.28 400.00