基于主成分分析的区域初始水权分配.docVIP

基于主成分分析的区域初始水权分配 　　摘要：在遵循有效性、公平性和可持续性原则构建初始水权分配指标体系的基础上，针对初始水权分配中指标体系存在显著的相关性和权重偏好非一致性等问题，提出将主成分分析应用于初始水权分配中以消除相关性的影响。该方法先用主成分分析法对指标体系进行赋权，之后结合改进AHP与熵权法对多层次指标体系进行组合赋权，以消除单一权重方法的片面性，并利用博弈论进行指标权重的综合集成，最后运用综合评价法确定初始水权进行分配权重。将此方法用于湖北省应城市的初始水权分配，结果分析表明，采用该方法进行初始水权分配可行且合理。该方法可以为其他区域的初始水权分配提供参考和借鉴，并为水资源的统一管理奠定了基础。 　　关键词：初始水权分配；主成分分析；熵权法；改进的AHP；综合集成 　　中图分类号：TV211 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672-1683（2016）04-0179-06 　　Abstract：The index system of the initial water rights allocation was constructed following the principle of effectiveness，equity and sustainability.Aiming at the problems of significant correlation of index system and inconsistency of weight preference of initial water rights allocation，Principle Component Analysis （PCA） was applied to the initial water rights allocation to eliminate the impact of correlation.In the method， firstly，Principle Component Analysis （PCA） was proposed to empower the index system，Thereafter，improved AHP and entropy method were adopted to determine weights for multi-lever index system，which eliminated the unilateral result.And game theory was used to carry out the comprehensive integration of index weight.Finally， a comprehensive evaluation method was used to allocate initial water rights.The method was applied to study the initial water rights allocation in Yingcheng，Hubei province.The verification of the model and the analysis of the experimental results showed that the proposed method worked well and was rational and practical.The model could provide a reference for initial water rights allocation in other areas and lay the foundation for the unity management of the water resources. 　　Key words：initial water rights allocation；principal component analysis；entropy method；improved AHP；comprehensive integration 　　中国经济社会的迅速发展使中国资源型、工程型、水质性缺水问题并存，水资源供需矛盾日趋显著，严重制约了中国经济社会的可持续发展。而解决水资源短缺问题的最有效途径是建立以水权、水市场和水权交易制度为基础的水资源管理体系[1]。流域初始水权分配则是进行水资源管理的首要前提，也是实现水资源高效利用和优化配置的有效举措。 　　目前，初始水权分配的研究成果多是对分配原则和指标体系作定性的描述，而对初始水权可操作性定量分配研究较少[2-5]。指标权重的科学确定是进行水资源