宏观经济学课件及习题第8章.pptVIP

Chapter 12: Short-Term Economic Fluctuations: An Introduction Overview part 4 In this part we will study short-term fluctuations in economic activity, commonly known as recessions and expansions. cause of short-term fluctuations the available policy responses. Chapter Outline presents some background on the history characteristics of short-term economic fluctuations. Important Concepts Covered Recession/depression 衰退/萧条 Peak/ trough 波峰 /波谷 Expansion/boom 扩张/繁荣 Potential output 生产能力 Output gap 产出缺口 Recessionary and expansionary gap 衰退型和扩张型产出缺口 Natural rate of unemployment 自然失业率 Okun‘s Law 奥肯法则 Ⅰ. Recessions and Expansions Recession (or contraction) A period in which the economy is growing at a rate significantly below normal Depression A particularly severe or protracted recession Peak The beginning of a recession, the high point of economic activity prior to a downturn Trough The end of a recession, the low point of economic activity prior to a recovery Expansion A period in which the economy is growing at a rate significantly above normal Boom A particularly strong and protracted expansion Fluctuations in U.S.Real GDP, 1920-2004 U.S. Recessions Since 1929 Ⅱ.Some Facts About Short-term Economic Fluctuations Economic fluctuations are: Irregular in length and severity. Felt throughout the economy and may have a global effect Real GDP Growth in Five Major Countries, 1999-2004 Unemployment is a key indicator of short-term economic fluctuations. Industries that produce durable goods are more affected than nondurable service industries. Recessions are usually followed by a decline in inflation and many have been preceded by an increase in inflation. U.S. Inflation, 1960-2004 Ⅲ.Output Gaps andCyclical Unemployment Potential Output Output Gap The Natural Rate of Unemployment Okun’s Law Potential Output, Y* (or potential real GDP or full-employment output) The maximum sustainable amount of output (real GDP) that an economy can produce Output Gap