《Mesoscale Predictability of Moist Baroclinic Waves： Variable and Scale-dependent Error Growth》.pdf

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《Mesoscale Predictability of Moist Baroclinic Waves： Variable and Scale-dependent Error Growth》.pdf

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ADVANCESINATMOSPHERICSCIENCES，VOL．31，SEPTEM BER2014，995—1008 M esoscalePredictabilityofM oistBaroclinicW aves：Variableand Scale-dependentErrorGrowth BEINaifang 1andFuqingZHANG2 SchoolofHumanSettlementsandCivilEngineering,Xi’an~aotongUniversity,Xi’an710049 DepartmentofMeteorology,thePennsylvanianStateUniversiyt,UniversiytParkPennsylvania16802，USA (Received26September2013；revised25January2014；accepted13February2014) ABSTRACT Thisstudyseekstoquantifythepredictabilityofdifferentforecastvariablesatvariousscalesthroughspectralnaalysisof htedifferencebetweenperturbedna dunperturbedcloud—permittingsimulationsofidealizedmoistbaroclinicwavesamplifv． inginaconditionallyunstableatmosphere．Theerrorgrowthofaforecastvariableisfoundtobestronglyassociatedwithits reference—state(unperturbed)powerspectrumandslope，whichdiffersignificantlyfromvariabletovariable．Theshallower thereferencestatespectrum ，themorespectralenergyresidesatsmallerscales，andhtusthelesspredictablethevariablesince hteerrorgrowsfasteratsmallerscalesbeforeitsaturates．Ingenera1．thevariableswithmoresmall—scalecomponents(such asverticalvelocity)arelesspredictable，andviceversa(suchaspressure)．Inhigher—reso1utjonsimulationsinwhichmore rigoroussmall—scaleinstabilitiesbecomebetterresolved．theerrorgrowsfasteratsmallerscalesandspreadstolragerscales morequicklybeforetheerrorsaturatesatthosesmallscalesduringhtefirstfew hoursoftheforecast．Basedonthereference powerspectrum，anindexonhtedergeeoflack(orloss)ofpredictability(LPI)isfurtherdefinedtoquantifythepredictive timescaleofeachforecastvariable．Futurestudiesraeneededtoinvestigatehtescale—andvariable．dependentpredictability underdifferentbackgroundreferenceflows，i