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演讲和公开声明 International Institute For Strategic Studies国际战略研究所 Global Strategic Review Speech全球策略检讨的讲话 September 10, 2010 2010年9月10日 Thirty-four years ago, I had the honor of delivering the first Alastair Buchan Memorial Lecture for the IISS.三十四年以前，我曾在国际战略研究所提供的第一个阿拉斯泰尔巴肯纪念讲座荣誉。 Alastair had been a friend, an occasional critic and a permanent inspiration.阿拉斯泰尔一直是朋友，偶尔评论家和永久的灵感。 The annual conference opening today is a tribute to his vision.年度会议的开幕式今天是他的远见表示敬意。 In 1976, I selected as a theme a quotation by Alastair, as follows: “Structural changes,” Alastair wrote, “are occurring in the relative power and influence of the major states; there has been a quantitative change of colossal proportions in the interdependence of Western societies and in the demands we make on natural resources; and there are qualitative changes in the preoccupations of our societies.” He then posed the question: “Can the highly-industrialized states sustain or recover a quality in their national life which not only satisfies the new generation, but can act as an example or attractive force to other societies?” In 1976, I answered that question with an emphatic “yes.” 1976年，我选择一个主题，由阿拉斯泰尔报价如下：“结构变化”阿拉斯泰尔写道，“在相对实力和影响力的大国发生;出现了一个巨大的比例，在相互依存的量变。西方社会和要求，我们就自然资源和有在我们社会的当务之急质变“然后，他提出了这个问题：”能否高度工业化的国家维持或恢复其国家的生活质素，不既能满足新的一代，但可以作为一个例子或者其他社会力量的吸引力？“在1976年，我回答这个问题的一个有力”是的。“ I would be more ambivalent today.我会更加矛盾的今天。 The changes Alastair considered fundamental, at the time, were the first relatively minor stages towards the globalized world economy and the world of proliferating nuclear weapons.阿拉斯泰尔认为根本的变化的时候，是第一个相对较小的阶段走向全球化的世界经济和扩散核武器的世界。 Then, the geopolitical or strategic dividing line ran through the center of the European continent.然后，地缘政治和战略的分界线穿过欧洲大陆的中心。 Today, it would be impossible to draw one dividing line, to find a common denominator for all the fault lines that divide the contemporary world.今天，这将是不可能得出一个分界线，要找到所有的断层线划分，当今世界的共同点。 The overriding theme of my speech then, based on my exp