降水概率预报在淮河流域的水文预报试验.pdfVIP

降水概率预报在淮河流域的水文预报试验* †1，2 ‡3 1，2 1，2 4 赵琳娜 ，刘 莹 ，包红军 ，梁 莉 ，董航宇 （1.中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081 ；2. 国家气象中心，北京 100081 ；3.四川省气象台，成都 610072；4.成都信息工程学院，成都 610225 ） 摘要：本文利用条件亚正态分布模型生成淮河流域三个子流域1-14 天的日面雨量集成预报，并将其运用于王家坝水文站的 径流量集合预报，结果表明概率预报的第5 百分位至第95 百分位基本能将观测包含在内。集成预报中部分成员可以预报出 洪峰的峰值和峰值出现的大致时间。条件亚正态分布模型生成的具有概率意义的降水预报在大坡岭至王家坝流域的洪水预报 试验说明，相对于GFS 单值降水预报，降水概率预报对洪水过程的预报来说，更能达到对未来的水文事件进行最大可能估 计这个目的，并给出了一个广泛的结果区间，尽可能地综合了造成降水预报不确定性的因素。 关键词：气象学，条件亚正态分布，洪水预报，集合预报 The Hydrological Forecast Test on Precipitation Probability Forecast in Huaihe Basin 1, 2 3 1, 2 1, 2 4 ZHAO Linna , LIU Ying , Bao Hongjun , Liang Li , DONG Hangyu (1. CMA Public Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100081; 2. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081; 3. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072; 4. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225) Abstract: In this paper, the ensemble forecasts of daily mean areal precipitation (MAP) for lead times up to 14 days from three catchments generated from conditional meta-Gaussian distribution were applying as input to produce the discharge of Wangjiaba hydrologic station. Results demonstrate that the observation of discharge is included in the interval between 5th percentage and 95th percentage forecasts of discharge that is generated by the MAP ensemble forecasts which is calculated from the conditional meta-Gaussian distribution model. Several members can capture the flood peak flow and the corresponding peak time. The test of flood forecasting result from the precipitation probability forecasts of c