FDI是否会带来国际收支危机.pdfVIP

经济发展论坛工作论文 FED Working Papers Series No. F FDI 是否会带来国际收支危机？ 姚枝仲 何帆 FDI 是否会带来国际收支危机？ 姚枝仲 何 帆∗ （中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所，100732 ） 内容提要： FDI 除了能够从资本形成、技术扩散和促进竞争等角度刺激发展中国家的 经济增长，还会对一国的国际收支产生影响。如果 FDI 给发展中国家带来的债务负担超过 其偿还能力，必然会给发展中国家带来国际收支危机。但是，由于 FDI 将同时影响一国的 生产、出口和进口，因此需要全面地分析其对国际收支的影响。论文构建了一个差分系统考 察了FDI 通过九种渠道影响东道国国际收支的长期动态效应。结果发现，FDI 的利润回流虽 然最终会超过FDI 的净流入，但是，由于存在FDI 的进出口行为，FDI 对国际收支的净效 应并不一定为逆差。在此基础上，论文分析了 FDI 对东道国国际收支的净效应在长期内为 逆差还是顺差的条件，并讨论了这种差额是否能趋于稳定。论文还根据这两个命题，简要考 察了FDI 对中国国际收支的长期动态影响。 关键词：FDI 国际收支 利润回流 Will FDI Cause Balance of Payments Crisis ？ Yao Zhizhong He Fan (The Institute of World Economy and Politics, CASS, 100732) Abstract: FDI can stimulate the economic development of developing countries from the channel of capital formation, technology progress and competition promotion. FDI can also affect developing country’s balance of payments. If the stock of FDI liabilities will grow much faster than the capacity to service those liabilities, a financial crisis will happen finally. However, because FDI also affects production, exports and imports, we need a more comprehensive model to analysis its net effect on the balance of payments. This paper analyses the dynamic effect of FDI on the balance of payments of the host country in a system of difference equations and finds that the net effect is not always negative because of the pattern of trade of FDI, even though the outflows of profits of FDI are in excess of the amount of net inflow of FDI. This paper brings forward two propositions