基本医疗保障对农村家庭消费行为影响.pdfVIP

基本医疗保障对农村家庭消费行为的影响 摘要 近年来，我国居民消费在国内生产总值（GDP）中所占的比重持续下降， 消费需求不足已经成为制约我国经济发展的重要因素之一。而医疗保障 具有社会稳定器的功能，对于拉动内需、促进经济增长作用巨大。始于 2003 年的新型农村合作医疗制度使得农村地区的基本医疗保障覆盖率 得到极大的提高。本文运用中国健康与营养调查 （CHNS）1991-2009 年 农村家庭面板数据，建立Probit 模型，研究了基本医疗保障对农村家庭 消费行为的影响。本文的主要结论包括：（1）基本医疗保障在2004-2009 年这个时间段对农村家庭耐用品消费有显著刺激作用，说明建立健全农 村医疗保障制度意义重大。（2）疾病的发生和人口老龄化对于农村家庭 具有显著的负面影响，明显抑制其耐用品消费需求。（3）收入风险对农 村家庭耐用品消费具有显著的挤出效应，收入风险越大则消费需求越 低。 关键词 基本医疗保障；人口老龄化；农村消费 The Effects of Basic Medical Insurance on Household Consumption in Rural China Abstract: The ratio of household consumption over GDP in China keeps declining recently. Consumption shortage has restricted our economic development. With the function of social stabilizer, medical insurance can play an important role in stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic growth. The new rural cooperative medical system since 2003 has greatly increased the coverage of basic medical insurance in rural China. This paper studies the effects of basic medical insurance on household consumption in rural China, using China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) rural household panel data from 199 1 to 2009 and Probit model. It is found that basic medical insurance has significantly increased rural household durables consumption from 2004 to 2009, indicating that it is very important to improve the basic medical insurance system in rural China. It is also found in the paper that illness and Aging have dramatically depressed the demand of rural durables consumption and that income risk has significantly crowing-out effect on rural durables consumption. Key Words: Basic medical insurance; Aging; Rural Consumption. 一、 引言 中国长期居高不下的储蓄率一直是学术界及政策制定部门共同关心的一个 问题 （贾男、张亮亮和甘犁，2011）。改革开放 来中国居民银行储蓄的增长速 度一直高于经济增长和居民收入的增长