成都市房价收入比实证分析.docVIP

成都市房价收入比实证分析 王希夷 [摘要]随着居民对房价高低的日益关注，房价是否超出了居民的购买能力？房价收入比是否过高？这些问题成为了各大文章讨论的热点。但是，由于对房价收入比合理区间的判断标准不同，对同一研究区得出的结论也截然不同。本文运用贷款模型计算得到成都市房价收入比合理上限，由此判断成都市2005年房价收入比是否处于合理区间之中。 [关键字]房价收入比，个人住房贷款，居民购房能力 参考文献： [1][5]宏观经济研究院投资研究所课题组．居民住房支付能力评价指标比较与分析[J]．宏观经济研究，2005.2 [2]郑睿祺．房价收入比计算方法与合理取值研究：［清华大学工学硕士学位论文］[J]，2002 [3][4][6]成都市统计年鉴2004 [M] [7]杨永华．论房价和房价收入比[J]．经济学家，2006.2 [8]张红.房地产经济学讲义[M].清华大学出版社2004.9，第一版:488-492 [9]陈然方．当前上海房价收入比状况分析——兼论上海房价的未来走势[J]．价格理论与实践，2005.11 The real diagnosis analysis about the Housing-Price-to-Income Ratio in Chengdu [Abstract] Along with inhabitant paying more and more attention to the house price,these questiongs like whether the house price has surpassed inhabitants purchase ability, and whether the Housing-Price-to-Income Ratio is excessively high, have become each big article discussion hot spot. But, because of the differences in the judgement about the Housing-Price-to-Income Ratio’s reasonable sector, the conclusions are entirely different to the same research area. This article utilizes the loan model to obtain the Chengdu’s Housing-Price-to-Income Ratio’s reasonable sector, and analysis whether Chengdu’s Housing-Price-to-Income Ratio is in the reasonable sector in 2005. [keywords]Housing-Price-to-Income Ratio, Individual housing loan, The ability of inhabitant buying house 1