一种用于未治疗人群HIV耐药流行程度监测的抽样技术.pdfVIP

摘 要 世界卫生组织将未治疗人群人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）的耐药流行程度设定 为高、中、低三档，并采 Mark Myatt 和 Diane E Bennett 于 2008 年给出了一 种新的截断序贯抽样技术来监测未治疗人群 HIV 耐药流行程度。虽然该截断序 贯抽样法所需的样本量较少，但是仍对样本量有一定的要求，在某些情况下该 截断序贯抽样法无法对样本做出判别。本文提出将 Mark Myatt 和 Diane E Bennett 给出的截断序贯抽样技术与贝叶斯估计相结合来监测未治疗人群 HIV 耐药流行程度。该方法既保留有了原有方法的优点，同时又在一定程度上放宽 了原方法对样本量的限制。最后，本文给出了适于我国监测未治疗人群 HIV 耐 药流行程度的抽样技术。 关键词：HIV 耐药；序贯抽样；贝叶斯估计 1 Abstract World Health Organization confines the prevalence of the drug resistance of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) as high, medium and low grades, and adopted a novel truncated sequential sampling technique projected by Mark Myatt and Diane E Bennett for the surveillance of transmitted HIV drug resistance in 2008. Although the sequential sampling method required small sample size, but it still have certain requirements for the sample size. In some cases, the truncated sequential sampling method can not identify the sample. This paper provides a method combined with Mark Myatt and Diane E Bennett’s method and Bayesian Estimation for the surveillance of transmitted HIV drug resistance. The method retains with advantages of the original method, while relaxing the sample size restriction of original method to some extent. Finally, this paper brings forward a suitable sampling method for the surveillance of transmitted HIV drug resistance in China. Keywords: HIV Drug Resistance; Sequential Sampling; Bayesian Estimation 2 目 录 摘要 1 Abstract 2 第 1 章 绪论 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 论文思路 2 第 2 章 MD截断序贯抽样方法 3 2.1 简单序贯概率比检验 3